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 Hurricanes

Atlantic

Title Description
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABNT20 KNHC 251745
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Oct 25 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form off the east
coast of the United States by tonight. The frontal low is forecast
to move generally north-northeastward through early this week, and
the system will likely bring rain and wind impacts to portions of
the mid-Atlantic and northeast U.S. coast. The system should then
begin to move eastward away from the U.S. coast by midweek. By the
end of the week, the low could acquire some tropical or subtropical
characteristics while it moves eastward or southeastward over the
central Atlantic. For more information on this system, including
storm watches and warnings, see products issued by your local
National Weather Service office and High Seas Forecasts issued by
the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Latto
There are no tropical cyclones at this time. No tropical cyclones as of Mon, 25 Oct 2021 17:47:06 GMT

Eastern Pacific

Title Description
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 251745
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Oct 25 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Storm Rick, located inland about 100 miles
north of Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Latto
Summary for Tropical Storm Rick (EP2/EP172021) ...RICK WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM WHILE INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES... As of 1:00 PM CDT Mon Oct 25 the center of Rick was located near 19.5, -102.5 with movement N at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
Tropical Storm Rick Public Advisory Number 13A Issued at 100 PM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 251746
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rick Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172021
100 PM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021
 
...RICK WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM WHILE INLAND OVER SOUTHERN 
MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 102.5W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM N OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Mexico has discontinued all watches and warnings 
for the coast of Mexico.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rick was 
located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 102.5 West.  Rick is 
moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h).  A generally 
northward motion is expected over the next 12 to 24 hours.  On the
forecast track, the center of Rick will move farther inland over
Mexico today and tonight.
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with 
higher gusts.  Continued weakening is expected this afternoon and 
evening, and Rick is forecast to dissipate over the mountainous 
terrain of Mexico tonight.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) 
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.38 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Rick can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2, WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC,
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?key_messages.
  
RAINFALL:  Rick is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with
isolated storm total amounts of 20 inches across sections of the
Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan through Tuesday. This heavy
rainfall will likely produce flash flooding and mudslides.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Rick will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico through early Tuesday.  These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
Tropical Storm Rick Forecast Advisory Number 13 Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 25 2021

000
WTPZ22 KNHC 251449
TCMEP2
 
HURRICANE RICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172021
1500 UTC MON OCT 25 2021
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO PUNTA SAN TELMO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF TECPAN DE GALEANA TO ACAPULCO
* WEST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 102.2W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE  15SW  10NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  70SE  50SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE  90SE  75SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 102.2W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 102.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 19.7N 103.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 21.5N 103.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 102.2W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 25/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
Tropical Storm Rick Forecast Discussion Number 13 Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 251452
TCDEP2
 
Hurricane Rick Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172021
1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021

The center of Rick made landfall a short distance east of Lazaro 
Cardenas, Mexico earlier this morning.  Since then, visible 
satellite images show that the system has continued to move 
generally northward over southern Mexico.  Assuming that weakening 
has occurred after landfall at a rate similar to that given by the 
decay-SHIPS model, the current intensity is set at 70 kt.  Rick 
should weaken rapidly over the mountainous terrain of Mexico, and 
although the NHC forecast shows a 24-h point, the global models 
suggest that the cyclone could dissipate by that time.

Satellite fixes indicate that Rick is moving just west of due north 
at a slightly faster forward speed, or around 350/8 kt.  A 
low-latitude mid-level ridge to the east of Rick should steer the 
cyclone northward to north-northwestward until dissipation occurs 
over southwestern Mexico.  The official forecast track is based 
partly on extrapolation since most of the model trackers lose the 
system later today due to dissipation of the low-level circulation. 
The updated NHC track forecast is similar to that from the previous 
advisory.


Key Messages:
 
1. Heavy rains associated with Rick will continue to spread across
the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan through tonight, and
could persist through Tuesday.  This rainfall will likely produce
dangerous flash flooding and mudslides.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/1500Z 18.6N 102.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  26/0000Z 19.7N 103.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 24H  26/1200Z 21.5N 103.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 36H  27/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
Tropical Storm Rick Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13 Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 25 2021

000
FOPZ12 KNHC 251451
PWSEP2
                                                                    
HURRICANE RICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  13                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172021               
1500 UTC MON OCT 25 2021                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6
NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70   
KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H.                                            
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
L CARDENAS     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
L CARDENAS     50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    
Tropical Storm Rick Graphics Tropical Storm Rick 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 25 Oct 2021 17:46:34 GMT

Tropical Storm Rick 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 25 Oct 2021 15:22:26 GMT

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