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 Hurricanes

Atlantic

Title Description
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
728
ABNT20 KNHC 011738
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A well-defined tropical wave located over the western Caribbean Sea
is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Conditions are expected to be conducive for a tropical depression
to form by early next week, but only if the system moves and
remains over the waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea or
southern Gulf of Mexico. Development will become less likely if the
system moves over the Yucatan Peninsula or northern Central America.
Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce
locally heavy rains, with possible flash flooding, over portions of
southeastern Mexico, Central America, and western Cuba during the
next several days, and interests in those areas should monitor the
progress of the disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Another tropical wave located just east of the Lesser Antilles is
also producing a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. This wave is forecast to move westward at 15 to 20
mph during the next several days, and environmental conditions
could become a little more conducive for development when the system
is over the central or western Caribbean Sea early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

There are no tropical cyclones at this time. No tropical cyclones as of Thu, 01 Oct 2020 18:49:05 GMT

Eastern Pacific

Title Description
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
451
ABPZ20 KNHC 011739
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Oct 1 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Marie, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred
miles southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico in a few days.
Some development of this system is possible into early next week
while it moves west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Summary for Hurricane Marie (EP3/EP182020) ...MARIE EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Thu Oct 1 the center of Marie was located near 15.2, -119.5 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 973 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
Hurricane Marie Public Advisory Number 10 Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Oct 01 2020

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 011436
TCPEP3
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Marie Advisory Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182020
800 AM PDT Thu Oct 01 2020
 
...MARIE EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 119.5W
ABOUT 820 MI...1320 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marie was located
near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 119.5 West.  Marie is moving
toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general 
motion with decreasing forward speed is expected to continue for 
the next few days.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next 
day or so, and Marie is expected to become a major hurricane by 
tonight or sooner.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
Hurricane Marie Forecast Advisory Number 10 Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 01 2020

029 
WTPZ23 KNHC 011436
TCMEP3
 
HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182020
1500 UTC THU OCT 01 2020
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 119.5W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  15 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  973 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 120SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 119.5W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 119.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 15.9N 121.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.8N 124.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.8N 126.2W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  90SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.8N 127.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  35SE  25SW  35NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE  90SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.6N 129.3W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE  90SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.4N 130.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE  90SW 110NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 21.7N 133.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 23.8N 136.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 119.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 

Hurricane Marie Forecast Discussion Number 10 Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Oct 01 2020

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 011437
TCDEP3
 
Hurricane Marie Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182020
800 AM PDT Thu Oct 01 2020
 
Marie has continued to become better organized this morning.  An 
AMSR image from just after 09Z showed a closed mid-level eyewall, 
and conventional satellite imagery shows an increasingly symmetric 
cloud pattern with very cold cloud tops, colder than -80C, around 
the center.  The current intensity estimate is set at 90 kt in 
agreement with Dvorak classifications from both TAFB and SAB.   
Marie is moving over SSTs warmer than 28 deg C and in a moist, 
low-shear atmospheric environment.  The SHIPS guidance still shows 
a significant probability of rapid intensification through tonight, 
so Marie is likely to become a major hurricane quite soon.  The 
official forecast is a little above the latest corrected model 
consensus.  In a couple of days, the hurricane should be crossing 
the SST gradient and encountering cooler waters, so a weakening 
trend is anticipated to be underway within 48 hours.

The estimated initial motion is west-northwestward, or 285/15 kt.  
For the next couple of days, Marie should continue to move along 
the southern periphery of a mid-tropospheric ridge associated with 
a high pressure system centered over California.  A slight turn to 
the right with some deceleration is expected during the forecast 
period due to a weakness in the ridge near 130W longitude.  By the 
end of the period, Marie is likely to turn toward the northwest 
while it moves through this weakness.  The official track forecast 
lies very close to the latest multi-model consensus, TVCE, 
prediction.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/1500Z 15.2N 119.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 15.9N 121.7W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  02/1200Z 16.8N 124.1W  120 KT 140 MPH
 36H  03/0000Z 17.8N 126.2W  120 KT 140 MPH
 48H  03/1200Z 18.8N 127.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
 60H  04/0000Z 19.6N 129.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  04/1200Z 20.4N 130.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  05/1200Z 21.7N 133.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  06/1200Z 23.8N 136.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
Hurricane Marie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10 Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 01 2020

000
FOPZ13 KNHC 011436
PWSEP3
                                                                    
HURRICANE MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  10                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182020               
1500 UTC THU OCT 01 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H.                                        
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 120W       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
15N 120W       50 46   1(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)
15N 120W       64  2   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
15N 125W       34  X  10(10)   5(15)   2(17)   1(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
20N 125W       34  X   1( 1)  12(13)   6(19)   3(22)   X(22)   X(22)
20N 125W       50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
15N 130W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
20N 130W       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  21(23)  57(80)   3(83)   1(84)
20N 130W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  41(46)   4(50)   X(50)
20N 130W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  24(25)   1(26)   X(26)
 
25N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)
 
20N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  19(24)   4(28)
20N 135W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   4( 9)
20N 135W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
25N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   8(16)
25N 135W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
20N 140W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
25N 140W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    
Hurricane Marie Graphics Hurricane Marie 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 01 Oct 2020 14:38:49 GMT

Hurricane Marie 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 01 Oct 2020 15:25:12 GMT

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