Atlantic
| Title | Description |
|---|---|
| Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook |
000 ABNT20 KNHC 191145 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Humberto, located several hundred miles northeast of Bermuda, and on Tropical Storm Jerry, located several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands. A tropical wave located about 1000 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized cloudiness and showers. Some development of this system is possible while the system approaches the Windward Islands this weekend or when it moves across the eastern Caribbean Sea early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. An elongated area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is located just south of the Dominican Republic. Although upper-level winds are not conducive for significant development, thunderstorm activity has become more concentrated since yesterday. Some slight development is still possible before the system begins to interact with the high terrain of Hispaniola. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti during the next day or two. The disturbance is forecast to move slowly northwestward through the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa in a few days. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for at least gradual development thereafter while the system moves westward over the far eastern tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky |
| Tropical Depression Imelda Public Advisory Number 9 | The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 |
| Summary for Hurricane Humberto (AT4/AL092019) | ...HUMBERTO EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY... ...LARGE SWELLS AFFECTING BERMUDA AND MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Sep 19 the center of Humberto was located near 36.8, -60.0 with movement NE at 24 mph. The minimum central pressure was 955 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph. |
| Hurricane Humberto Public Advisory Number 28 | Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTNT34 KNHC 191448 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019 ...HUMBERTO EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY... ...LARGE SWELLS AFFECTING BERMUDA AND MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.8N 60.0W ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM NE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Humberto was located near latitude 36.8 North, longitude 60.0 West. Humberto is moving toward the northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h). A slower north- northeastward motion is expected later today and tonight. A turn toward the east-northeast is expected to commence on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. The hurricane is expected to slowly weaken and become a post-tropical cyclone later today. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 405 miles (650 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells and dangerous surf generated by Humberto will continue along the coast of Bermuda during the next day or two, and these could continue to cause coastal flooding. Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and much of the coast of the United States from east-central Florida to the Mid-Atlantic States during the next couple of days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office and the Bermuda Weather Service. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
| Hurricane Humberto Forecast Advisory Number 28 | Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 000 WTNT24 KNHC 191448 TCMAT4 HURRICANE HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019 1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 60.0W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 21 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 80SE 70SW 60NW. 50 KT.......100NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. 34 KT.......220NE 170SE 160SW 350NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 480SE 960SW 600NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 60.0W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.0N 60.8W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 38.8N 58.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 50 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. 34 KT...210NE 180SE 150SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 41.2N 57.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. 34 KT...180NE 200SE 150SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 43.2N 54.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 90SE 90SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 200SE 180SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 44.6N 49.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 200SE 200SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.8N 60.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI |
| Hurricane Humberto Forecast Discussion Number 28 | Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTNT44 KNHC 191450 TCDAT4 Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019 Humberto is still a powerful hurricane, but the system is in the process of transitioning to an extratropical cyclone. Satellite images indicate that frontal features have formed, and cooler and drier air is wrapping around the western and southern sides of the circulation. Deep convection is most organized to the north and west of the partially exposed low-level center. The initial intensity is lowered to 95 kt for this advisory. A mid- to upper-level low situated just west of Humberto has been aiding in its transition, and the global models suggest that Humberto will become fully extratropical later today. Despite the fact that the cyclone is expected to lose its tropical characteristics, it is still forecast to produce winds of hurricane-force for another 36 hours or so. Humberto is moving northeastward at 21 kt. A turn to the north-northeast with a decrease in forward speed is expected later today and tonight as Humberto rotates around the north side of the mid- to upper-level low. After that, a faster east-northeast or east motion is expected, as the system becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. The cyclone should be absorbed by another extratropical low in about 3 days over the far north Atlantic. Key Messages: 1. Large swells will continue to affect Bermuda, the northwestern Bahamas, and the east coast of the United States from east-central Florida to the Mid-Atlantic States during the next couple of days. These swells could create life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 36.8N 60.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 38.8N 58.9W 90 KT 105 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 20/1200Z 41.2N 57.6W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 21/0000Z 43.2N 54.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 21/1200Z 44.6N 49.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
| Hurricane Humberto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 28 | Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019
000
FONT14 KNHC 191449
PWSAT4
HURRICANE HUMBERTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019
1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HUMBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
36.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 5(21) X(21) X(21)
CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) 18(18) 10(28) X(28) X(28) X(28)
ILE ST PIERRE 34 X 2( 2) 17(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20)
BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
EDDY POINT NS 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SYDNEY NS 34 X 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
SABLE ISLAND 34 2 56(58) 4(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62)
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
|
| Hurricane Humberto Graphics |
 5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 14:51:23 GMT  Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 15:25:03 GMT |
| Summary for Hurricane Jerry (AT5/AL102019) | ...AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT FINDS JERRY IS A HURRICANE... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Sep 19 the center of Jerry was located near 16.8, -54.4 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph. |
| Hurricane Jerry Public Advisory Number 9 | Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 191454 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Jerry Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019 ...AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT FINDS JERRY IS A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 54.4W ABOUT 490 MI...785 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Barbuda * Anguilla * St. Maarten * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy * Saba and St. Eustatius A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Jerry. Additional watches could be issued later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jerry was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 54.4 West. Jerry is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A west-northwest motion at a similar forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will be near or north of the northern Leeward Islands Friday, pass north of Puerto Rico on Saturday and east of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Jerry is forecast to strengthen during the next day before some weakening begins this weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently reported a minimum central pressure of 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch areas by early Friday. RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall, with isolated maximum totals of 4 to 6 inches from Barbuda northwest across St. Marteen/Anguilla into Anegada. Jerry is forecast to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches across the the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are forecast to begin to affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands this afternoon. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake |
| Hurricane Jerry Forecast Advisory Number 9 | Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 191452 TCMAT5 HURRICANE JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBUDA * ANGUILLA * ST. MAARTEN * ST. MARTIN * ST. BARTHELEMY * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JERRY. ADDITIONAL WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED LATER TODAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 54.4W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 54.4W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 53.9W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.5N 56.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.5N 59.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.5N 62.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.7N 64.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 23.5N 68.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 26.5N 70.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 30.5N 67.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 54.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 19/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
| Hurricane Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 9 | Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 191456 TCDAT5 Hurricane Jerry Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019 Satellite images indicate that the center of Jerry is on the northwestern side of the central dense overcast near a very deep convective burst. An Air Force recon plane just flew through the center and found a central pressure of 988 mb and SFMR values near 65 kt. These data support making Jerry the 4th hurricane of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season with initial wind speed of 65 kt. Jerry has the potential to further strengthen today, but an increase in northwesterly shear related to an upper-level ridge is anticipated overnight. This change in shear will likely arrest the development of Jerry and start a slow weakening trend sometime tomorrow. In 3 or 4 days, Jerry could enter a more conducive environment for strengthening, but there is a pretty large spread in the shear forecast near the cyclone at this time, related to the positioning of Jerry relative to the ridge. Since the environmental uncertainty at long range is so high, little change has been made to the previous forecast. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 295/14 kt. The track forecast has remained rather consistent during the past several cycles, taking Jerry just north of the Leeward Islands during the first couple of days due to seemingly reliable steering flow from the subtropical ridge to the north. The track is a little trickier beyond that time due to some dependence on the strength of Jerry, with a stronger system likely moving a bit longer toward the west-northwest, similar to the latest ECMWF/HWRF forecast. Regardless, the cyclone should eventually turn northward and northeastward by day 5 due to a substantial break in the subtropical ridge. The track forecast puts slightly greater weight on those stronger solutions, and the official track forecast is a little left of the various consensus aids and not too far from the last NHC prediction. Key Messages: 1. Although the core of Jerry is expected to pass north of northern Leeward Islands, tropical-storm-force winds and locally heavy rainfall are possible, and tropical storm watches are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 16.8N 54.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 17.5N 56.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 18.5N 59.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 19.5N 62.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 20.7N 64.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 23.5N 68.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 23/1200Z 26.5N 70.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 24/1200Z 30.5N 67.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake |
| Hurricane Jerry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9 | Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019
000
FONT15 KNHC 191454
PWSAT5
HURRICANE JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019
1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24)
BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7)
MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9)
GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) 1(13)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6)
AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12)
SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 5(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19)
SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SABA 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
ST EUSTATIUS 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
BARBUDA 34 X 2( 2) 11(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
ANTIGUA 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
GUADELOUPE 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
AVES 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
DOMINICA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
|
| Hurricane Jerry Graphics |
 5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 15:03:49 GMT  Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 15:32:11 GMT |
Eastern Pacific
| Title | Description |
|---|---|
| Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook |
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 191149 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Kiko, located over the far southwestern part of the basin, on Tropical Storm Mario, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on Hurricane Lorena, located near the coast of southwestern Mexico. An elongated area of low pressure located over the far southwestern portion of the eastern North Pacific continues to produce a few disorganized thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible during the next day or two while the system moves little. Further development is unlikely after that time as the system interacts with and is possibly absorbed by Kiko. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. An area of low pressure could form south of the southern coast of Mexico in a day or two. Slow development of the system is possible thereafter while it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward through early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky |
| Summary for Tropical Storm Kiko (EP3/EP132019) | ...KIKO HOLDING STEADY IN STRENGTH WELL AWAY FROM LAND... As of 8:00 AM PDT Thu Sep 19 the center of Kiko was located near 16.0, -128.7 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph. |
| Tropical Storm Kiko Public Advisory Number 29 | Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019 804 WTPZ33 KNHC 191447 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 AM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019 ...KIKO HOLDING STEADY IN STRENGTH WELL AWAY FROM LAND... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 128.7W ABOUT 1310 MI...2110 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 128.7 West. Kiko is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A northwest motion is expected later today through Friday night. A west-southwestward motion is expected this weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast for the next few days, and Kiko may regain hurricane strength on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
| Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Advisory Number 29 | Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 191446 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 128.7W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 100SE 60SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 128.7W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 128.5W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 16.4N 129.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 17.1N 130.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 17.7N 130.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 17.8N 131.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 17.0N 133.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 16.5N 135.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 18.0N 137.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 128.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI |
| Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 29 | Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 191448 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 AM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Kiko has generally changed little during the last several hours. The storm remains relatively compact with deep convection organized in bands to the north and east of the low-level center. The initial intensity remains 55 kt, which is near the high end of the latest satellite intensity estimates. Earlier ASCAT data indicated that the strongest winds were located to the east of the center. The storm is expected to be in relatively favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions during the next few days, and most of the dynamical models respond by showing the cyclone intensifying during that time period. Conversely, the SHIPS and LGEM models show little change in strength during the next few days. The NHC intensity forecast lies between those scenarios and is in best agreement with the consensus aids. This forecast is a tad lower than the previous one. Kiko is moving slowly westward, steered by a subtropical ridge to its north. A turn to the northwest is expected later today in response to the ridge weakening and a disturbance to the southwest of Kiko. A west to west-southwest motion is likely over the weekend as another ridge strengthens to the northwest of the cyclone. The models continue to struggle on the evolution of the steering pattern for Kiko with the spread between the GFS and ECMWF at 120 h being around 500 n mi. The NHC track forecast remains roughly near the middle of the guidance envelope not far from the consensus aids. Regardless of the details, it seems likely that Kiko will continue to move slowly over the southwestern part of the east Pacific basin for several more days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 16.0N 128.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 16.4N 129.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 17.1N 130.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 17.7N 130.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 17.8N 131.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 17.0N 133.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 23/1200Z 16.5N 135.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 24/1200Z 18.0N 137.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
| Tropical Storm Kiko Wind Speed Probabilities Number 29 | Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019
000
FOPZ13 KNHC 191447
PWSEP3
TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019
1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
15N 130W 34 2 4( 6) 5(11) 3(14) 5(19) 3(22) 1(23)
20N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 7(16) 6(22) 1(23) X(23)
10N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
15N 135W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 15(19) 35(54) 7(61)
15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 5(23)
15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10)
20N 135W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 10(15) 6(21) 6(27)
20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4)
15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15)
15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12)
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
|
| Tropical Storm Kiko Graphics |
 5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 14:49:30 GMT  Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 15:45:24 GMT |
| Summary for Tropical Storm Mario (EP4/EP142019) | ...MARIO APPEARS TO BE LESS ORGANIZED... As of 9:00 AM MDT Thu Sep 19 the center of Mario was located near 16.5, -111.5 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph. |
| Tropical Storm Mario Public Advisory Number 9 | Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 191450 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 900 AM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 ...MARIO APPEARS TO BE LESS ORGANIZED... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 111.5W ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 111.5 West. Mario is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A north-northeast or northeast heading at a similar forward speed is expected for the next day or two. After that time, Mario could turn northwestward, but confidence in the forecast is low. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next several days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky |
| Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Advisory Number 9 | Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 191450 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 111.5W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 120SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 111.5W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 111.9W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.2N 111.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.0N 110.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.0N 110.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.2N 111.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.1N 114.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 24.0N 117.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 25.0N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 111.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY |
| Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Discussion Number 9 | Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 191453 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 900 AM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 The intensity of Mario is still 55 kt, based on a blend of objective and subjective satellite intensity fixes, but these estimates likely have a higher-than-normal uncertainty. Recent microwave and first-light visible imagery implies that the low-level center of Mario may now be displaced to the east of most of its deep convection, and if this is actually the case, the winds may very well have decreased since the last advisory. Mario is currently embedded within low- to mid-layer southwesterly flow and this should cause the cyclone to move generally northeastward or north-northeastward for the next day or two. What happens after that depends largely on Lorena. The odds that Mario (or its remnants) will directly interact with Lorena (or its remnants) have increased, but it is still unclear whether one cyclone will absorb the other or if they will have a binary interaction and rotate around one another. Confidence in the forecast is therefore low, but will hopefully increase later today after a reconnaissance plane provides more information about the state of Lorena. The NHC forecast lies near the middle of the vast guidance envelope and keeps Mario as a distinct system through day 5, but significant changes may be required to the track forecast later today. The intensity forecast is no clearer. Microwave imagery overnight showed that Mario had once again developed a well-defined convective inner-core. However, more recent imagery this morning suggests that the tropical storm has become strongly tilted with height. The poorly organized vertical structure should prevent the cyclone from significant strengthening in the short term and moderate to strong vertical wind shear is expected to continue for the next several days. The official intensity forecast is quite a bit lower than the previous one. It now lies closer to the intensity consensus but it should be noted that it is too soon to completely rule out Mario powering up to hurricane strength at some point during the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 16.5N 111.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 17.2N 111.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 18.0N 110.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 19.0N 110.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 20.2N 111.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 22.1N 114.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 23/1200Z 24.0N 117.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 24/1200Z 25.0N 119.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky |
| Tropical Storm Mario Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9 | Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019
000
FOPZ14 KNHC 191450
PWSEP4
TROPICAL STORM MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
15N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
20N 110W 34 X 3( 3) 30(33) 19(52) 2(54) X(54) X(54)
20N 110W 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16)
20N 110W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 39(40) 28(68) 8(76) 1(77) X(77) X(77)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 8( 8) 19(27) 7(34) X(34) X(34) X(34)
ISLA SOCORRO 64 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 5(10) 1(11) X(11)
20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 15(20) 2(22) X(22)
20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) 1(13)
25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7)
$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY
|
| Tropical Storm Mario Graphics |
 5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 14:58:30 GMT  Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 15:51:59 GMT |
| Summary for Tropical Storm Lorena (EP5/EP152019) | ...CENTER OF LORENA MOVES OFFSHORE JUST WEST OF CABO CORRIENTES... ...HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 10:00 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 the center of Lorena was located near 20.5, -105.9 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph. |
| Tropical Storm Lorena Public Advisory Number 9 | Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 191449 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorena Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 ...CENTER OF LORENA MOVES OFFSHORE JUST WEST OF CABO CORRIENTES... ...HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.5N 105.9W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM WNW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the southern Baja California peninsula from Los Barriles to Todos Santos. The government of Mexico has changed the Hurricane Warning from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes to a Tropical Storm Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula from La Paz to Santa Fe A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Manzanillo to Punta Mita * Baja California peninsula from Los Barriles to Todos Santos A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Lorena. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 105.9 West. Lorena is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn to the west-northwest is expected tonight, and a west-northwestward motion at a slow forward speed should continue Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena will move over the Pacific waters to the southeast of the Baja California peninsula today and tonight, and then pass near or or just south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula late Friday and Friday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Lorena is forecast to re-gain hurricane strength later today or tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue within portions of the tropical storm warning area in southwestern Mexico through this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin on Friday within the tropical storm warning area in Baja California Sur. Hurricane conditions are possible in the southern Baja California peninsula within the watch area as early as Friday night or Saturday. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through the weekend: Coastal sections of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco: 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches. This rainfall may produce life threatening flash floods and mudslides. Far southern Baja California Sur: 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts around 6 inches. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown |
| Tropical Storm Lorena Forecast Advisory Number 9 | Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 191449 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LOS BARRILES TO TODOS SANTOS. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ TO SANTA FE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MANZANILLO TO PUNTA MITA * BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LOS BARRILES TO TODOS SANTOS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 105.9W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 10NE 20SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 20NE 40SE 70SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 60SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 105.9W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 105.5W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 21.2N 106.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 10SE 10SW 0NW. 50 KT... 10NE 20SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 70SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 21.7N 108.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 22.2N 109.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.7N 110.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 24.8N 112.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 26.8N 114.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 28.8N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 105.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 19/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
| Tropical Storm Lorena Forecast Discussion Number 9 | Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 191450 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Microwave and satellite imagery indicated that the center of Lorena moved along the southwestern coast of Mexico overnight and this morning. More recent 1-minute GOES-17 visible satellite imagery suggests that the center has now moved offshore just west of Cabo Corrientes. Assuming that some weakening occurred while the core interacted with land, the initial intensity has been reduced to 60 kt for this advisory. This is in agreement with an average of the SAB and TAFB satellite estimates. Although the inner core has likely been disrupted, the overall satellite appearance suggests Lorena remains well organized with excellent banding and very cold cloud tops over the center. Lorena will be traversing very warm water to the southeast of the Baja California peninsula and the upper-level environment is expected to be quite favorable. Therefore, re-strengthening is anticipated during the next day or so, and the NHC intensity forecast is closest to the higher statistical guidance. This foreast could be on the low side if the inner core has remained more intact that currently thought. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate Lorena this afternoon, and this data should provide a better estimate of the current intensity and structure of the cyclone. Recent satellite and microwave fixes show that Lorena is moving northwestward or 320/9 kt. A west-northwesterly motion is expected to begin later today while Lorena moves between a mid-level ridge to the north and Tropical Storm Mario to its southwest. This forecast assumes that Lorena will remain the dominant system if it interacts with Mario, and will eventually turn northwestward around the western portion of the ridge. This scenario is favored by most of the ECMWF ensemble members, and is close the GFS ensemble mean. Although there is still quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the exact track and intensity of Lorena, the government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the southern Baja California peninsula. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall will continue over portions of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco during the next day or so. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to continue along a portion of the coast of southwestern Mexico through this afternoon. 3. Lorena is forecast re-strengthen into a hurricane and move very close to the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula by Friday afternoon, and could bring hurricane conditions to the area. A Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning have been issued, and residents should heed the advice of local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 20.5N 105.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 21.2N 106.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 21.7N 108.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 22.2N 109.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 22.7N 110.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 24.8N 112.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 23/1200Z 26.8N 114.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 24/1200Z 28.8N 115.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown |
| Tropical Storm Lorena Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9 | Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019
000
FOPZ15 KNHC 191449
PWSEP5
TROPICAL STORM LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019
1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 2(13)
P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 8(21) 2(23)
P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 5( 5) 58(63) 19(82) 4(86) X(86) X(86)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) 24(24) 20(44) 4(48) 1(49) X(49)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) 8( 8) 15(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 1( 1) 36(37) 19(56) 4(60) X(60) X(60)
SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) 13(13) 13(26) 3(29) X(29) X(29)
SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
LA PAZ 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 17(22) 19(41) X(41) X(41)
LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) X(11)
LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
LORETO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 13(15) 2(17) X(17)
LORETO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7)
GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9)
HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6)
LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
CULIACAN 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 66 7(73) 2(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75)
ISLAS MARIAS 50 31 7(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39)
ISLAS MARIAS 64 10 6(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
SAN BLAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
P VALLARTA 34 3 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
P VALLARTA 50 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
20N 110W 34 X 3( 3) 14(17) 7(24) 3(27) X(27) X(27)
20N 110W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 9(23) 1(24)
25N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
|
| Tropical Storm Lorena Graphics |
 5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 14:51:23 GMT  Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 15:58:30 GMT |
Atlantic Map
Eastern Pacific Map
Rowlo
Copyright © 2003-2019 by Jeff Rowland
All Rights Reserved.
Site Design: Jeff Rowland