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 Hurricanes

Atlantic

Title Description
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABNT20 KNHC 181113
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Mon Nov 18 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure located about 350 miles east-northeast
of the northern Leeward Islands is producing disorganized showers
and thunderstorms with winds of around 30 mph on its northeast side.
Some gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical
or subtropical depression could form during the next couple of days
while it moves northwestward and then northward over the open
Atlantic. After that time, upper-level winds are expected to become
less conducive and the disturbance is forecast to merge with a
frontal system after midweek, so additional development is not
expected. For more information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by
the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Latto
There are no tropical cyclones at this time. No tropical cyclones as of Mon, 18 Nov 2019 14:37:41 GMT

Eastern Pacific

Title Description
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
692
ABPZ20 KNHC 181114
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
400 AM PST Mon Nov 18 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Twenty-One-E, located well south of the southern coast of
Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Latto

Summary for Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E (EP1/EP212019) ...WEAK DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW BY EARLY TUESDAY... As of 9:00 AM CST Mon Nov 18 the center of Twenty-One-E was located near 12.3, -105.5 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Public Advisory Number 10 Issued at 900 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2019

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 181433
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Advisory Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212019
900 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2019

...WEAK DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW BY EARLY
TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.3N 105.5W
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Twenty-One-E was located near latitude 12.3 North, longitude 105.5
West. The depression is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h),
and this motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. The depression is expected to become a remnant low by
Tuesday and dissipate by Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Latto/Mello

Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Forecast Advisory Number 10 Issued at 1500 UTC MON NOV 18 2019

000
WTPZ21 KNHC 181432
TCMEP1
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212019
1500 UTC MON NOV 18 2019
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 105.5W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 105.5W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 105.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 12.4N 106.3W
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 12.5N 107.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 12.5N 108.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 12.5N 109.6W...DISSIPATED
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 105.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER LATTO
 
 
Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Forecast Discussion Number 10 Issued at 900 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2019

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 181435
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212019
900 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2019

The deep convection increased this morning near the estimated
location of the low level center, and this increase is most likely
associated with the diurnal maximum. Subjective Dvorak intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB support winds of 25 knots, which will
be the initial advisory intensity. The NHC forecast shows the system
becoming a remnant low by 24 hours. All of the available intensity
guidance supports this scenario, and the latest forecast is a just
continuation of the previous one.  Since the cyclone has such a
weak tangential wind field, however, it could open into a trough at
any time.

The center has been difficult to track in infrared imagery this
morning, and therefore the initial motion is a somewhat uncertain
280/5 kt. There is no change to the forecast track reasoning. The
mid-level ridge to the cyclone's north will continue to steer it
slowly to the west until dissipation.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/1500Z 12.3N 105.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  19/0000Z 12.4N 106.3W   20 KT  25 MPH
 24H  19/1200Z 12.5N 107.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  20/0000Z 12.5N 108.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  20/1200Z 12.5N 109.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto/Mello

Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10 Issued at 1500 UTC MON NOV 18 2019

000
FOPZ11 KNHC 181434
PWSEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212019
1500 UTC MON NOV 18 2019

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   PACIFIC  STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

$$
FORECASTER LATTO/MELLO
Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Graphics Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 18 Nov 2019 14:37:13 GMT

Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 18 Nov 2019 14:37:13 GMT

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