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 Hurricanes

Atlantic

Title Description
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABNT20 KNHC 151717
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Bill, located a few hundred miles south-southeast of Halifax,
Canada.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue over the Bay
of Campeche and southern Mexico in association with a broad
low pressure area. This system is expected to move little during
the next day or two, and any development should be slow to occur
during that time period due to its close proximity to land.
However, the disturbance should begin to move northward by
Thursday, and a tropical depression is likely to form late in
the week when the low moves across the central and
northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development,
heavy rainfall will continue over portions of Central America
and southern Mexico during the next several days. Heavy rains
could also begin to impact portions of the northern Gulf Coast
on Friday. Please consult products from your local
meteorological service for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Shower activity is limited in association with a tropical
wave located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands. Development, if any, should be slow to occur during the
next couple of days while the wave moves westward. Thereafter, a
combination of dry air aloft and strong upper-level winds should
end the chances of formation when the wave reaches the central
tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Roth
Summary for Tropical Storm Bill (AT2/AL022021) ...BILL ALMOST AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE... As of 5:00 PM AST Tue Jun 15 the center of Bill was located near 41.6, -59.6 with movement NE at 36 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
Tropical Storm Bill Public Advisory Number 6 Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Jun 15 2021

000
WTNT32 KNHC 152033
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bill Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022021
500 PM AST Tue Jun 15 2021
 
...BILL ALMOST AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.6N 59.6W
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 540 MI...865 KM E OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 36 MPH...57 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bill was
located near latitude 41.6 North, longitude 59.6 West. Bill is
moving toward the northeast near 36 mph (57 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue until the cyclone dissipates on Wednesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is expected, and Bill is forecast to become a 
post-tropical low by this evening.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
Tropical Storm Bill Forecast Advisory Number 6 Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUN 15 2021

000
WTNT22 KNHC 152032
TCMAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM BILL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022021
2100 UTC TUE JUN 15 2021
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.6N  59.6W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  55 DEGREES AT  31 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT.......  0NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......  0NE  80SE  40SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE  90SE 180SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.6N  59.6W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.9N  60.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 44.7N  55.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  80SE  40SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.6N  59.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 
 
Tropical Storm Bill Forecast Discussion Number 6 Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Jun 15 2021

000
WTNT42 KNHC 152035
TCDAT2
 
Tropical Storm Bill Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022021
500 PM AST Tue Jun 15 2021
 
Bill is well on its way to becoming an extratropical cyclone.  The
convective pattern has become quite asymmetric with the center
exposed to the southwest of the weakening thunderstorms.  The
center itself has become stretched, and in fact, surrounding
observations suggest that the surface center may no longer
be closed.  In addition, a warm front appears to be forming on
the storm's southeast side.  Based on these trends, it seems very
likely that Bill won't be around for long as a tropical storm. The
initial intensity is held at 50 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data,
but that could be a little generous.
 
The initial motion remains a very fast 055/31 kt.  A continued fast
east-northeast to northeast motion in the mid-latitude jet stream
is expected until the cyclone dissipates within the next 12-24
hours near Atlantic Canada.  Some weakening seems likely prior to
dissipation due to the cyclone moving over much colder SSTs while
remaining in a strong wind shear environment.
 
Due to the system's fast forward speed, the strong winds will
remain confined to the south and east sides of the cyclone.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/2100Z 41.6N  59.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  16/0600Z 44.7N  55.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  16/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
Tropical Storm Bill Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6 Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUN 15 2021

000
FONT12 KNHC 152033
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM BILL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022021               
2100 UTC TUE JUN 15 2021                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
41.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.                                          
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI                                               
Tropical Storm Bill Graphics Tropical Storm Bill 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 15 Jun 2021 20:36:54 GMT

Tropical Storm Bill 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 15 Jun 2021 21:22:32 GMT

Eastern Pacific

Title Description
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 151737
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Jun 15 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Carlos, located over 1700 miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few
hundred miles south of southern Mexico and Guatemala are associated
with a westward-moving tropical wave and a broad area of low
pressure. An area of low pressure is expected to form along this
wave later this week. Environmental conditions are expected to be
favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form by this weekend while it moves slowly
northwestward, roughly parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto
Summary for Tropical Depression Carlos (EP3/EP032021) ...CARLOS BARELY HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE... As of 2:00 PM PDT Tue Jun 15 the center of Carlos was located near 9.8, -133.5 with movement WSW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Tropical Depression Carlos Public Advisory Number 13 Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Jun 15 2021

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 152039
TCPEP3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Carlos Advisory Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032021
200 PM PDT Tue Jun 15 2021
 
...CARLOS BARELY HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.8N 133.5W
ABOUT 1800 MI...2900 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Carlos
was located near latitude 9.8 North, longitude 133.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-southwest near 9 mph (15 km/h).
A continued westward motion along with a slight decrease in forward
speed is expected over the next couple of days.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Carlos is expected to degenerate into a remnant low tonight or
tomorrow and dissipate in a few days.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Latto
 
Tropical Depression Carlos Forecast Advisory Number 13 Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUN 15 2021

000
WTPZ23 KNHC 152038
TCMEP3
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032021
2100 UTC TUE JUN 15 2021
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.8N 133.5W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.8N 133.5W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR  9.9N 133.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z  9.6N 134.6W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z  9.4N 135.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z  9.5N 137.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z  9.7N 138.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 10.0N 139.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF  9.8N 133.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER LATTO
 
 
Tropical Depression Carlos Forecast Discussion Number 13 Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Jun 15 2021

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 152039
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Depression Carlos Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032021
200 PM PDT Tue Jun 15 2021
 
Dry, stable air and strong southwesterly shear continue to take 
their toll on Carlos. The only deep convection associated with the 
depression consists of a very small cluster just south of the 
center, and another about 90 n mi northwest of the center. This 
meager amount of shower activity is not sufficient to be considered 
organized deep convection. Therefore if no significant convection 
develops soon, then Carlos will be declared a remnant low. Despite 
the lack of convection, a pair recent ASCAT overpasses showed 
several wind vectors of 27-30 kt, so the initial intensity remains 
30 kt for this advisory. The environment surrounding the depression 
is not forecast to improve, so the vortex should gradually spin 
down, with dissipation expected within a few days.
 
Carlos is moving just south of due west at 8 kt. This general motion 
is expected to continue for the remainder of the cyclone's 
existence, except for perhaps a slight decrease in forward speed and 
turn to the right, as the system is steered by a low- to mid-level 
ridge to its north. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed 
from the previous one and lies near the multi-model consensus.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/2100Z  9.8N 133.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  16/0600Z  9.6N 134.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  16/1800Z  9.4N 135.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  17/0600Z  9.5N 137.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  17/1800Z  9.7N 138.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  18/0600Z 10.0N 139.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  18/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Latto
 
Tropical Depression Carlos Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13 Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUN 15 2021

000
FOPZ13 KNHC 152039
PWSEP3
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  13      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032021               
2100 UTC TUE JUN 15 2021                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS WAS LOCATED NEAR  
LATITUDE 9.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 133.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
10N 135W       34  5   6(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
10N 140W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER LATTO                                                    
Tropical Depression Carlos Graphics Tropical Depression Carlos 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 15 Jun 2021 20:40:50 GMT

Tropical Depression Carlos 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 15 Jun 2021 21:28:24 GMT

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