Atlantic
| Title | Description |
|---|---|
| Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook |
728 ABNT20 KNHC 011738 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A well-defined tropical wave located over the western Caribbean Sea is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Conditions are expected to be conducive for a tropical depression to form by early next week, but only if the system moves and remains over the waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea or southern Gulf of Mexico. Development will become less likely if the system moves over the Yucatan Peninsula or northern Central America. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce locally heavy rains, with possible flash flooding, over portions of southeastern Mexico, Central America, and western Cuba during the next several days, and interests in those areas should monitor the progress of the disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. Another tropical wave located just east of the Lesser Antilles is also producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This wave is forecast to move westward at 15 to 20 mph during the next several days, and environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for development when the system is over the central or western Caribbean Sea early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg |
| There are no tropical cyclones at this time. | No tropical cyclones as of Thu, 01 Oct 2020 18:49:05 GMT |
Eastern Pacific
| Title | Description |
|---|---|
| Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook |
451 ABPZ20 KNHC 011739 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Thu Oct 1 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Marie, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred miles southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico in a few days. Some development of this system is possible into early next week while it moves west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Pasch |
| Summary for Hurricane Marie (EP3/EP182020) | ...MARIE EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Thu Oct 1 the center of Marie was located near 15.2, -119.5 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 973 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph. |
| Hurricane Marie Public Advisory Number 10 | Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Oct 01 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 011436 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Marie Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 800 AM PDT Thu Oct 01 2020 ...MARIE EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 119.5W ABOUT 820 MI...1320 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marie was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 119.5 West. Marie is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion with decreasing forward speed is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Marie is expected to become a major hurricane by tonight or sooner. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch |
| Hurricane Marie Forecast Advisory Number 10 | Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 01 2020 029 WTPZ23 KNHC 011436 TCMEP3 HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 1500 UTC THU OCT 01 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 119.5W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 120SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 119.5W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 119.1W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 15.9N 121.7W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.8N 124.1W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.8N 126.2W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.8N 127.9W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.6N 129.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.4N 130.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 21.7N 133.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 23.8N 136.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 119.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
| Hurricane Marie Forecast Discussion Number 10 | Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Oct 01 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 011437 TCDEP3 Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 800 AM PDT Thu Oct 01 2020 Marie has continued to become better organized this morning. An AMSR image from just after 09Z showed a closed mid-level eyewall, and conventional satellite imagery shows an increasingly symmetric cloud pattern with very cold cloud tops, colder than -80C, around the center. The current intensity estimate is set at 90 kt in agreement with Dvorak classifications from both TAFB and SAB. Marie is moving over SSTs warmer than 28 deg C and in a moist, low-shear atmospheric environment. The SHIPS guidance still shows a significant probability of rapid intensification through tonight, so Marie is likely to become a major hurricane quite soon. The official forecast is a little above the latest corrected model consensus. In a couple of days, the hurricane should be crossing the SST gradient and encountering cooler waters, so a weakening trend is anticipated to be underway within 48 hours. The estimated initial motion is west-northwestward, or 285/15 kt. For the next couple of days, Marie should continue to move along the southern periphery of a mid-tropospheric ridge associated with a high pressure system centered over California. A slight turn to the right with some deceleration is expected during the forecast period due to a weakness in the ridge near 130W longitude. By the end of the period, Marie is likely to turn toward the northwest while it moves through this weakness. The official track forecast lies very close to the latest multi-model consensus, TVCE, prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 15.2N 119.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 15.9N 121.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 16.8N 124.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 17.8N 126.2W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 18.8N 127.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 04/0000Z 19.6N 129.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 20.4N 130.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 21.7N 133.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 06/1200Z 23.8N 136.2W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch |
| Hurricane Marie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10 | Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 01 2020
000
FOPZ13 KNHC 011436
PWSEP3
HURRICANE MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020
1500 UTC THU OCT 01 2020
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
15N 120W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
15N 120W 50 46 1(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47)
15N 120W 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
15N 125W 34 X 10(10) 5(15) 2(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18)
20N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 6(19) 3(22) X(22) X(22)
20N 125W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
15N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
20N 130W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) 57(80) 3(83) 1(84)
20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 41(46) 4(50) X(50)
20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 1(26) X(26)
25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7)
20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) 4(28)
20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9)
20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 8(16)
25N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
|
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 5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 01 Oct 2020 14:38:49 GMT  Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 01 Oct 2020 15:25:12 GMT |
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