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Title Description
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABNT20 KNHC 191145
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Humberto, located several hundred miles northeast of Bermuda,
and on Tropical Storm Jerry, located several hundred miles east of
the Leeward Islands.

A tropical wave located about 1000 miles west of the Cabo Verde
Islands is producing disorganized cloudiness and showers. Some
development of this system is possible while the system approaches
the Windward Islands this weekend or when it moves across the
eastern Caribbean Sea early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

An elongated area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave
is located just south of the Dominican Republic. Although
upper-level winds are not conducive for significant development,
thunderstorm activity has become more concentrated since yesterday.
Some slight development is still possible before the system begins
to interact with the high terrain of Hispaniola. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the
Dominican Republic and Haiti during the next day or two. The
disturbance is forecast to move slowly northwestward through the
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa in
a few days. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for at least gradual development thereafter while the system moves
westward over the far eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
Tropical Depression Imelda Public Advisory Number 9 The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019
Summary for Hurricane Humberto (AT4/AL092019) ...HUMBERTO EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY... ...LARGE SWELLS AFFECTING BERMUDA AND MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Sep 19 the center of Humberto was located near 36.8, -60.0 with movement NE at 24 mph. The minimum central pressure was 955 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.
Hurricane Humberto Public Advisory Number 28 Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019

000
WTNT34 KNHC 191448
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number  28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092019
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019

...HUMBERTO EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
LATER TODAY...
...LARGE SWELLS AFFECTING BERMUDA AND MUCH OF THE EAST COAST
OF THE U.S...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.8N 60.0W
ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM NE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Humberto was
located near latitude 36.8 North, longitude 60.0 West. Humberto is
moving toward the northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h).  A slower north-
northeastward motion is expected later today and tonight.  A turn
toward the east-northeast is expected to commence on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts.  The hurricane is expected to slowly weaken and become a
post-tropical cyclone later today.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 405
miles (650 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Large swells and dangerous surf generated by Humberto will
continue along the coast of Bermuda during the next day or two, and
these could continue to cause coastal flooding.

Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and much of
the coast of the United States from east-central Florida to the
Mid-Atlantic States during the next couple of days.

These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office
and the Bermuda Weather Service.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Hurricane Humberto Forecast Advisory Number 28 Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019

000
WTNT24 KNHC 191448
TCMAT4
 
HURRICANE HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092019
1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.8N  60.0W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  50 DEGREES AT  21 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  955 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE  80SE  70SW  60NW.
50 KT.......100NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT.......220NE 170SE 160SW 350NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 480SE 960SW 600NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.8N  60.0W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.0N  60.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 38.8N  58.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.
50 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW.
34 KT...210NE 180SE 150SW 240NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 41.2N  57.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  60SE  60SW  50NW.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
34 KT...180NE 200SE 150SW 210NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 43.2N  54.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT...  0NE  60SE  60SW   0NW.
50 KT... 60NE  90SE  90SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 200SE 180SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 44.6N  49.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  90SE  90SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 200SE 200SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.8N  60.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 
 
Hurricane Humberto Forecast Discussion Number 28 Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019

000
WTNT44 KNHC 191450
TCDAT4

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number  28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092019
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019

Humberto is still a powerful hurricane, but the system is in the
process of transitioning to an extratropical cyclone.  Satellite
images indicate that frontal features have formed, and cooler and
drier air is wrapping around the western and southern sides of the
circulation.  Deep convection is most organized to the north and
west of the partially exposed low-level center.  The initial
intensity is lowered to 95 kt for this advisory.

A mid- to upper-level low situated just west of Humberto has been
aiding in its transition, and the global models suggest that
Humberto will become fully extratropical later today.  Despite the
fact that the cyclone is expected to lose its tropical
characteristics, it is still forecast to produce winds of
hurricane-force for another 36 hours or so.

Humberto is moving northeastward at 21 kt.  A turn to the
north-northeast with a decrease in forward speed is expected later
today and tonight as Humberto rotates around the north side of the
mid- to upper-level low.  After that, a faster east-northeast or
east motion is expected, as the system becomes embedded in the
mid-latitude westerlies.  The cyclone should be absorbed by
another extratropical low in about 3 days over the far north
Atlantic.

Key Messages:

1. Large swells will continue to affect Bermuda, the northwestern
Bahamas, and the east coast of the United States from east-central
Florida to the Mid-Atlantic States during the next couple of days.
These swells could create life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/1500Z 36.8N  60.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  20/0000Z 38.8N  58.9W   90 KT 105 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  20/1200Z 41.2N  57.6W   80 KT  90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  21/0000Z 43.2N  54.8W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  21/1200Z 44.6N  49.3W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Hurricane Humberto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 28 Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019

000
FONT14 KNHC 191449
PWSAT4
                                                                    
HURRICANE HUMBERTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  28              
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092019               
1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HUMBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 
36.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H.                                        
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  14(16)   5(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)  18(18)  10(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   2( 2)  17(19)   1(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   4( 4)   6(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  2  56(58)   4(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI                                               
Hurricane Humberto Graphics Hurricane Humberto 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 14:51:23 GMT

Hurricane Humberto 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 15:25:03 GMT
Summary for Hurricane Jerry (AT5/AL102019) ...AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT FINDS JERRY IS A HURRICANE... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Sep 19 the center of Jerry was located near 16.8, -54.4 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
Hurricane Jerry Public Advisory Number 9 Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019

000
WTNT35 KNHC 191454
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jerry Advisory Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019

...AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT FINDS JERRY IS A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 54.4W
ABOUT 490 MI...785 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbuda
* Anguilla
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor
the progress of Jerry.  Additional watches could be issued later
today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jerry was located
near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 54.4 West. Jerry is moving
toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A west-northwest
motion at a similar forward speed is expected over the next few
days. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will be near or
north of the northern Leeward Islands Friday, pass north of Puerto
Rico on Saturday and east of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Jerry is forecast to strengthen during the next
day before some weakening begins this weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles
(75 km).

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently reported a
minimum central pressure of 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
areas by early Friday.

RAINFALL:  Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall,
with isolated maximum totals of 4 to 6 inches from Barbuda
northwest across St. Marteen/Anguilla into Anegada. Jerry is
forecast to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches
with maximum amounts of 3 inches across the the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are forecast to begin to affect
portions of the northern Leeward Islands this afternoon.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Hurricane Jerry Forecast Advisory Number 9 Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019

000
WTNT25 KNHC 191452
TCMAT5
 
HURRICANE JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102019
1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBUDA
* ANGUILLA
* ST. MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF JERRY.  ADDITIONAL WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED LATER
TODAY.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N  54.4W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  60SE  30SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N  54.4W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N  53.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.5N  56.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.5N  59.3W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.5N  62.1W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.7N  64.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 23.5N  68.6W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  40SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 26.5N  70.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 30.5N  67.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N  54.4W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 19/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
 
Hurricane Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 9 Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019

000
WTNT45 KNHC 191456
TCDAT5

Hurricane Jerry Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019

Satellite images indicate that the center of Jerry is on the
northwestern side of the central dense overcast near a very deep
convective burst.  An Air Force recon plane just flew through the
center and found a central pressure of 988 mb and SFMR values near
65 kt.  These data support making Jerry the 4th hurricane of the
2019 Atlantic hurricane season with initial wind speed of 65 kt.

Jerry has the potential to further strengthen today, but an
increase in northwesterly shear related to an upper-level ridge is
anticipated overnight. This change in shear will likely arrest the
development of Jerry and start a slow weakening trend sometime
tomorrow. In 3 or 4 days, Jerry could enter a more conducive
environment for strengthening, but there is a pretty large spread in
the shear forecast near the cyclone at this time, related to the
positioning of Jerry relative to the ridge. Since the environmental
uncertainty at long range is so high, little change has been made to
the previous forecast.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 295/14
kt.  The track forecast has remained rather consistent during the
past several cycles, taking Jerry just north of the Leeward
Islands during the first couple of days due to seemingly reliable
steering flow from the subtropical ridge to the north. The track
is a little trickier beyond that time due to some dependence on the
strength of Jerry, with a stronger system likely moving a
bit longer toward the west-northwest, similar to the latest
ECMWF/HWRF forecast. Regardless, the cyclone should eventually turn
northward and northeastward by day 5 due to a substantial break in
the subtropical ridge.  The track forecast puts slightly greater
weight on those stronger solutions, and the official track forecast
is a little left of the various consensus aids and not too far from
the last NHC prediction.

Key Messages:

1. Although the core of Jerry is expected to pass north of
northern Leeward Islands, tropical-storm-force winds and locally
heavy rainfall are possible, and tropical storm watches are in
effect.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/1500Z 16.8N  54.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  20/0000Z 17.5N  56.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  20/1200Z 18.5N  59.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  21/0000Z 19.5N  62.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  21/1200Z 20.7N  64.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  22/1200Z 23.5N  68.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  23/1200Z 26.5N  70.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  24/1200Z 30.5N  67.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

Hurricane Jerry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9 Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019

000
FONT15 KNHC 191454
PWSAT5
                                                                    
HURRICANE JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   9                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102019               
1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  24(24)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   X( 9)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   5(12)   1(13)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)
 
AGUADILLA PR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAN JUAN PR    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
VIEQUES PR     34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)   2(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   1( 1)  12(13)   5(18)   1(19)   X(19)   X(19)
SAINT MAARTEN  50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SABA           34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
ST EUSTATIUS   34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
BARBUDA        34  X   2( 2)  11(13)   2(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
ANTIGUA        34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
GUADELOUPE     34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
AVES           34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
DOMINICA       34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    
Hurricane Jerry Graphics Hurricane Jerry 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 15:03:49 GMT

Hurricane Jerry 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 15:32:11 GMT

Eastern Pacific

Title Description
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191149
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kiko, located over the far southwestern part of the basin, on
Tropical Storm Mario, located several hundred miles south-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on
Hurricane Lorena, located near the coast of southwestern
Mexico.

An elongated area of low pressure located over the far southwestern
portion of the eastern North Pacific continues to produce a few
disorganized thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is
possible during the next day or two while the system moves little.
Further development is unlikely after that time as the system
interacts with and is possibly absorbed by Kiko.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

An area of low pressure could form south of the southern coast of
Mexico in a day or two. Slow development of the system is possible
thereafter while it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward
through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
Summary for Tropical Storm Kiko (EP3/EP132019) ...KIKO HOLDING STEADY IN STRENGTH WELL AWAY FROM LAND... As of 8:00 AM PDT Thu Sep 19 the center of Kiko was located near 16.0, -128.7 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
Tropical Storm Kiko Public Advisory Number 29 Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019

804 
WTPZ33 KNHC 191447
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number  29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
800 AM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019

...KIKO HOLDING STEADY IN STRENGTH WELL AWAY FROM LAND...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 128.7W
ABOUT 1310 MI...2110 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was
located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 128.7 West.  Kiko is
moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h).  A northwest motion is
expected later today through Friday night.  A west-southwestward
motion is expected this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Slow strengthening is forecast for the next few days, and
Kiko may regain hurricane strength on Friday.


Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Advisory Number 29 Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019

000
WTPZ23 KNHC 191446
TCMEP3
 
TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132019
1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 128.7W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 100SE  60SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 128.7W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 128.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 16.4N 129.3W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 17.1N 130.1W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 17.7N 130.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 17.8N 131.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 17.0N 133.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 16.5N 135.7W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 18.0N 137.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 128.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 
 
Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 29 Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 191448
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number  29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
800 AM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019

Kiko has generally changed little during the last several hours.
The storm remains relatively compact with deep convection organized
in bands to the north and east of the low-level center.  The
initial intensity remains 55 kt, which is near the high end of the
latest satellite intensity estimates.  Earlier ASCAT data indicated
that the strongest winds were located to the east of the center.

The storm is expected to be in relatively favorable atmospheric and
oceanic conditions during the next few days, and most of the
dynamical models respond by showing the cyclone intensifying during
that time period.  Conversely, the SHIPS and LGEM models show little
change in strength during the next few days.  The NHC intensity
forecast lies between those scenarios and is in best agreement with
the consensus aids.  This forecast is a tad lower than the previous
one.

Kiko is moving slowly westward, steered by a subtropical ridge to
its north.  A turn to the northwest is expected later today in
response to the ridge weakening and a disturbance to the southwest
of Kiko.  A west to west-southwest motion is likely over the
weekend as another ridge strengthens to the northwest of the
cyclone.  The models continue to struggle on the evolution of the
steering pattern for Kiko with the spread between the GFS and ECMWF
at 120 h being around 500 n mi.  The NHC track forecast remains
roughly near the middle of the guidance envelope not far from the
consensus aids.  Regardless of the details, it seems likely that
Kiko will continue to move slowly over the southwestern part of the
east Pacific basin for several more days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/1500Z 16.0N 128.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  20/0000Z 16.4N 129.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  20/1200Z 17.1N 130.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  21/0000Z 17.7N 130.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  21/1200Z 17.8N 131.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  22/1200Z 17.0N 133.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  23/1200Z 16.5N 135.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  24/1200Z 18.0N 137.5W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Tropical Storm Kiko Wind Speed Probabilities Number 29 Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019

000
FOPZ13 KNHC 191447
PWSEP3
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  29             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132019               
1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 130W       34  2   4( 6)   5(11)   3(14)   5(19)   3(22)   1(23)
 
20N 130W       34  X   2( 2)   7( 9)   7(16)   6(22)   1(23)   X(23)
 
10N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
15N 135W       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)  15(19)  35(54)   7(61)
15N 135W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  16(18)   5(23)
15N 135W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   2(10)
 
20N 135W       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)  10(15)   6(21)   6(27)
20N 135W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)
 
15N 140W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  11(15)
15N 140W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
20N 140W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI                                               
Tropical Storm Kiko Graphics Tropical Storm Kiko 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 14:49:30 GMT

Tropical Storm Kiko 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 15:45:24 GMT
Summary for Tropical Storm Mario (EP4/EP142019) ...MARIO APPEARS TO BE LESS ORGANIZED... As of 9:00 AM MDT Thu Sep 19 the center of Mario was located near 16.5, -111.5 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
Tropical Storm Mario Public Advisory Number 9 Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 191450
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142019
900 AM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019

...MARIO APPEARS TO BE LESS ORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 111.5W
ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was
located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 111.5 West. Mario is
moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A north-northeast or
northeast heading at a similar forward speed is expected for the
next day or two. After that time, Mario could turn northwestward,
but confidence in the forecast is low.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Little change in strength is forecast during the next
several days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Advisory Number 9 Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019

000
WTPZ24 KNHC 191450
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142019
1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 111.5W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR  10 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 30NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 120SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 111.5W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 111.9W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.2N 111.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 40NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.0N 110.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.0N 110.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.2N 111.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.1N 114.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 24.0N 117.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 25.0N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 111.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY


Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Discussion Number 9 Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 191453
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142019
900 AM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019

The intensity of Mario is still 55 kt, based on a blend of objective
and subjective satellite intensity fixes, but these estimates likely
have a higher-than-normal uncertainty. Recent microwave and
first-light visible imagery implies that the low-level center of
Mario may now be displaced to the east of most of its deep
convection, and if this is actually the case, the winds may very
well have decreased since the last advisory.

Mario is currently embedded within low- to mid-layer southwesterly
flow and this should cause the cyclone to move generally
northeastward or north-northeastward for the next day or two. What
happens after that depends largely on Lorena. The odds that Mario
(or its remnants) will directly interact with Lorena (or its
remnants) have increased, but it is still unclear whether one
cyclone will absorb the other or if they will have a binary
interaction and rotate around one another. Confidence in the
forecast is therefore low, but will hopefully increase later today
after a reconnaissance plane provides more information about the
state of Lorena. The NHC forecast lies near the middle of the vast
guidance envelope and keeps Mario as a distinct system through day
5, but significant changes may be required to the track forecast
later today.

The intensity forecast is no clearer. Microwave imagery overnight
showed that Mario had once again developed a well-defined convective
inner-core. However, more recent imagery this morning suggests that
the tropical storm has become strongly tilted with height. The
poorly organized vertical structure should prevent the cyclone from
significant strengthening in the short term and moderate to strong
vertical wind shear is expected to continue for the next several
days. The official intensity forecast is quite a bit lower than the
previous one. It now lies closer to the intensity consensus but it
should be noted that it is too soon to completely rule out Mario
powering up to hurricane strength at some point during the next
several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/1500Z 16.5N 111.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  20/0000Z 17.2N 111.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  20/1200Z 18.0N 110.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  21/0000Z 19.0N 110.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  21/1200Z 20.2N 111.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  22/1200Z 22.1N 114.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  23/1200Z 24.0N 117.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  24/1200Z 25.0N 119.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Tropical Storm Mario Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9 Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019

000
FOPZ14 KNHC 191450
PWSEP4
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   9            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142019               
1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   3( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
 
15N 110W       34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
20N 110W       34  X   3( 3)  30(33)  19(52)   2(54)   X(54)   X(54)
20N 110W       50  X   X( X)   6( 6)   9(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)
20N 110W       64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  1  39(40)  28(68)   8(76)   1(77)   X(77)   X(77)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   8( 8)  19(27)   7(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   2( 2)   5( 7)   3(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   5(10)   1(11)   X(11)
 
20N 115W       34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)  15(20)   2(22)   X(22)
20N 115W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
20N 115W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
25N 115W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   6(12)   1(13)
 
25N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER ZELINSKY                                                 
Tropical Storm Mario Graphics Tropical Storm Mario 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 14:58:30 GMT

Tropical Storm Mario 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 15:51:59 GMT
Summary for Tropical Storm Lorena (EP5/EP152019) ...CENTER OF LORENA MOVES OFFSHORE JUST WEST OF CABO CORRIENTES... ...HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 10:00 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 the center of Lorena was located near 20.5, -105.9 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
Tropical Storm Lorena Public Advisory Number 9 Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 191449
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lorena Advisory Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

...CENTER OF LORENA MOVES OFFSHORE JUST WEST OF CABO CORRIENTES...
...HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 105.9W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM WNW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the
southern Baja California peninsula from Los Barriles to Todos
Santos.

The government of Mexico has changed the Hurricane Warning from
Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes to a Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from La Paz to Santa Fe

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Manzanillo to Punta Mita
* Baja California peninsula from Los Barriles to Todos Santos

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of Lorena.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was
located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 105.9 West. Lorena is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn to the
west-northwest is expected tonight, and a west-northwestward motion
at a slow forward speed should continue Saturday. On the forecast
track, the center of Lorena will move over the Pacific waters to the
southeast of the Baja California peninsula today and tonight, and
then pass near or or just south of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula late Friday and Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and
Lorena is forecast to re-gain hurricane strength later today or
tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will continue within portions of
the tropical storm warning area in southwestern Mexico through this
afternoon.  Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin on
Friday within the tropical storm warning area in Baja California
Sur.  Hurricane conditions are possible in the southern Baja
California peninsula within the watch area as early as Friday night
or Saturday.

RAINFALL:  Lorena is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through the weekend:

Coastal sections of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima and
Jalisco: 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches. This
rainfall may produce life threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Far southern Baja California Sur: 2 to 4 inches with maximum
amounts around 6 inches.

SURF:  Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California
peninsula during the next few days.  These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Tropical Storm Lorena Forecast Advisory Number 9 Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019

000
WTPZ25 KNHC 191449
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152019
1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LOS BARRILES TO TODOS
SANTOS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM
MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ TO SANTA FE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MANZANILLO TO PUNTA MITA
* BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LOS BARRILES TO TODOS SANTOS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF LORENA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 105.9W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 10NE  20SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 20NE  40SE  70SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE   0SE  60SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 105.9W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 105.5W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 21.2N 106.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT...  0NE  10SE  10SW   0NW.
50 KT... 10NE  20SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT... 30NE  40SE  70SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 21.7N 108.1W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 20NE  30SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  50SE  60SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 22.2N 109.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  70SE  60SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.7N 110.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 24.8N 112.4W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 26.8N 114.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 28.8N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 105.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 19/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


Tropical Storm Lorena Forecast Discussion Number 9 Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 191450
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

Microwave and satellite imagery indicated that the center of Lorena
moved along the southwestern coast of Mexico overnight and this
morning.  More recent 1-minute GOES-17 visible satellite imagery
suggests that the center has now moved offshore just west of Cabo
Corrientes.  Assuming that some weakening occurred while the core
interacted with land, the initial intensity has been reduced to
60 kt for this advisory.  This is in agreement with an average of
the SAB and TAFB satellite estimates.  Although the inner core has
likely been disrupted, the overall satellite appearance suggests
Lorena remains well organized with excellent banding and very cold
cloud tops over the center.  Lorena will be traversing very warm
water to the southeast of the Baja California peninsula and the
upper-level environment is expected to be quite favorable.
Therefore, re-strengthening is anticipated during the next day or
so, and the NHC intensity forecast is closest to the higher
statistical guidance.  This foreast could be on the low side if the
inner core has remained more intact that currently thought. An Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate
Lorena this afternoon, and this data should provide a better
estimate of the current intensity and structure of the cyclone.

Recent satellite and microwave fixes show that Lorena is moving
northwestward or 320/9 kt. A west-northwesterly motion is expected
to begin later today while Lorena moves between a mid-level ridge
to the north and Tropical Storm Mario to its southwest. This
forecast assumes that Lorena will remain the dominant system if it
interacts with Mario, and will eventually turn northwestward around
the western portion of the ridge. This scenario is favored by most
of the ECMWF ensemble members, and is close the GFS ensemble mean.

Although there is still quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the
exact track and intensity of Lorena, the government of Mexico has
issued a Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning for a portion
of the southern Baja California peninsula.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall will continue over portions of the Mexican states
of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco during the next day or so. This
rainfall may produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to continue along a
portion of the coast of southwestern Mexico through this afternoon.

3. Lorena is forecast re-strengthen into a hurricane and move very
close to the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula by
Friday afternoon, and could bring hurricane conditions to the area.
A Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning have been issued,
and residents should heed the advice of local officials.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/1500Z 20.5N 105.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  20/0000Z 21.2N 106.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  20/1200Z 21.7N 108.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  21/0000Z 22.2N 109.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  21/1200Z 22.7N 110.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  22/1200Z 24.8N 112.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  23/1200Z 26.8N 114.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  24/1200Z 28.8N 115.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

Tropical Storm Lorena Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9 Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019

000
FOPZ15 KNHC 191449
PWSEP5
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   9           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152019               
1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
IS GUADALUPE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
PUNTA EUGENIA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   7(11)   2(13)
 
P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)   8(21)   2(23)
P ABREOJOS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   5( 5)  58(63)  19(82)   4(86)   X(86)   X(86)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X   X( X)  24(24)  20(44)   4(48)   1(49)   X(49)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64  X   X( X)   8( 8)  15(23)   2(25)   X(25)   X(25)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   1( 1)  36(37)  19(56)   4(60)   X(60)   X(60)
SAN JOSE CABO  50  X   X( X)  13(13)  13(26)   3(29)   X(29)   X(29)
SAN JOSE CABO  64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)  17(22)  19(41)   X(41)   X(41)
LA PAZ         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)   X(11)   X(11)
LA PAZ         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
LORETO         34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)  13(15)   2(17)   X(17)
LORETO         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BAHIA KINO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)
 
GUAYMAS        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)
 
HUATABAMPO     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   5( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
CULIACAN       34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34 66   7(73)   2(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)
ISLAS MARIAS   50 31   7(38)   1(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)
ISLAS MARIAS   64 10   6(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
P VALLARTA     34  3   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
P VALLARTA     50  4   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
20N 110W       34  X   3( 3)  14(17)   7(24)   3(27)   X(27)   X(27)
20N 110W       50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
20N 115W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
25N 115W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  12(14)   9(23)   1(24)
25N 115W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    
Tropical Storm Lorena Graphics Tropical Storm Lorena 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 14:51:23 GMT

Tropical Storm Lorena 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 15:58:30 GMT

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