Atlantic
| Title | Description |
|---|---|
| Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook |
000 ABNT20 KNHC 181113 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 700 AM EST Mon Nov 18 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A broad area of low pressure located about 350 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms with winds of around 30 mph on its northeast side. Some gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical or subtropical depression could form during the next couple of days while it moves northwestward and then northward over the open Atlantic. After that time, upper-level winds are expected to become less conducive and the disturbance is forecast to merge with a frontal system after midweek, so additional development is not expected. For more information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Latto |
| There are no tropical cyclones at this time. | No tropical cyclones as of Mon, 18 Nov 2019 14:37:41 GMT |
Eastern Pacific
| Title | Description |
|---|---|
| Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook |
692 ABPZ20 KNHC 181114 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 400 AM PST Mon Nov 18 2019 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E, located well south of the southern coast of Mexico. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Latto |
| Summary for Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E (EP1/EP212019) | ...WEAK DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW BY EARLY TUESDAY... As of 9:00 AM CST Mon Nov 18 the center of Twenty-One-E was located near 12.3, -105.5 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph. |
| Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Public Advisory Number 10 | Issued at 900 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 181433 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212019 900 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2019 ...WEAK DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW BY EARLY TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.3N 105.5W ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E was located near latitude 12.3 North, longitude 105.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is expected to become a remnant low by Tuesday and dissipate by Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Latto/Mello |
| Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Forecast Advisory Number 10 | Issued at 1500 UTC MON NOV 18 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 181432 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212019 1500 UTC MON NOV 18 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 105.5W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 105.5W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 105.3W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 12.4N 106.3W MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 12.5N 107.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 12.5N 108.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 12.5N 109.6W...DISSIPATED MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 105.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO |
| Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Forecast Discussion Number 10 | Issued at 900 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 181435 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212019 900 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2019 The deep convection increased this morning near the estimated location of the low level center, and this increase is most likely associated with the diurnal maximum. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB support winds of 25 knots, which will be the initial advisory intensity. The NHC forecast shows the system becoming a remnant low by 24 hours. All of the available intensity guidance supports this scenario, and the latest forecast is a just continuation of the previous one. Since the cyclone has such a weak tangential wind field, however, it could open into a trough at any time. The center has been difficult to track in infrared imagery this morning, and therefore the initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 280/5 kt. There is no change to the forecast track reasoning. The mid-level ridge to the cyclone's north will continue to steer it slowly to the west until dissipation. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 12.3N 105.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 12.4N 106.3W 20 KT 25 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 12.5N 107.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 20/0000Z 12.5N 108.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/1200Z 12.5N 109.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto/Mello |
| Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10 | Issued at 1500 UTC MON NOV 18 2019
000
FOPZ11 KNHC 181434
PWSEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212019
1500 UTC MON NOV 18 2019
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER LATTO/MELLO
|
| Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Graphics |
 5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 18 Nov 2019 14:37:13 GMT  Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 18 Nov 2019 14:37:13 GMT |
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