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 Hurricanes

Atlantic

Title Description
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABNT20 KNHC 251750
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ian, located over the western Caribbean Sea, on Tropical Storm
Gaston, located a few hundred miles west of the western Azores.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure located several hundred miles west of the
Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity. Despite the proximity of nearby dry air,
upper-level winds appear to be generally conducive and could
support some gradual development through the middle to latter
portion of this week as the system moves slowly northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin
Summary for Tropical Storm Gaston (AT3/AL082022) ...GASTON MOVING WESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 3:00 PM GMT Sun Sep 25 the center of Gaston was located near 39.4, -36.5 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Tropical Storm Gaston Public Advisory Number 21 Issued at 300 PM GMT Sun Sep 25 2022

000
WTNT33 KNHC 251434
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gaston Advisory Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082022
300 PM GMT Sun Sep 25 2022
 
...GASTON MOVING WESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.4N 36.5W
ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM W OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was
located near latitude 39.4 North, longitude 36.5 West. Gaston is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A gradual turn toward
the west-southwest is forecast by tomorrow.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast over the next few days, and Gaston is
forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by Monday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Gaston are expected to affect portions of
the Azores today.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT.
 
$$
Forecaster Papin
 
Tropical Storm Gaston Forecast Advisory Number 21 Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022

000
WTNT23 KNHC 251433
TCMAT3
 
TROPICAL STORM GASTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082022
1500 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.4N  36.5W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE   0SE  60SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE  90SE 120SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.4N  36.5W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.3N  35.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 39.2N  38.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 38.7N  39.9W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 38.0N  41.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 37.4N  44.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 36.8N  47.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.4N  36.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
 
 
Tropical Storm Gaston Forecast Discussion Number 21 Issued at 300 PM GMT Sun Sep 25 2022

000
WTNT43 KNHC 251436
TCDAT3
 
Tropical Storm Gaston Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082022
300 PM GMT Sun Sep 25 2022
 
The large convective burst that fired overnight and this morning
appears to have lead to Gaston's center reforming under the deep
convection further to the north and west. This also evident in
GOES-16 GLM lightning data that showed a clear arcing pattern
embedded in the convection prior to the new center becoming evident
on visible satellite imagery.  Since then, the convection has been
rapidly decaying, as the storm loses instability support from a
sharp upper-level trough as it moves into its axis. Subjective and
objective Dvorak numbers this morning were still CI 3.0/45-kt from
TAFB and UW-CIMSS ADT. While scatterometer data largely missed the
circulation earlier, it still showed tropical storm force winds
extending well to the northeast of the center. The initial intensity
is being maintained at 45 kt for this advisory.
 
Gaston, post reformation, has made its westward turn, with the
latest motion estimate at 270/10 kt. Gaston is currently situated
between an anomalously strong deep-layer ridge to its northeast, and
a more climatological ridge to its southwest. These features are
forecast to merge over the next 24-48 hours to the northwest of
Gaston, and should help steer the storm more to the west-southwest
for the remainder of its lifespan. The guidance this cycle is just a
bit further south and west compared to the previous cycle, and the
latest NHC track forecast was nudged in that direction, following
the consensus aids TVCN and HCCA.
 
Gaston might have had its last convective hurrah this morning, with 
the GFS, ECMWF, CMC, and HWRF suggesting the storm will struggle to 
produce organized convection from here on out. This could be related 
to the upper-level flow pattern, where the storm is moving out of an 
environment favorable for ascent into an environment favorable for 
descent, limiting convection, especially as it continues to traverse 
24-25C SSTs. The latest forecast still shows Gaston becoming a 
post-tropical cyclone in about 24 hours, but if the convection does 
not return before then, this evolution could occur sooner. The low 
should persist another day or two before it opens up into a trough 
in the subtropical Atlantic in about 72 hours, in agreement with the 
majority of the global model guidance.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/1500Z 39.4N  36.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  26/0000Z 39.2N  38.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  26/1200Z 38.7N  39.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  27/0000Z 38.0N  41.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  27/1200Z 37.4N  44.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  28/0000Z 36.8N  47.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  28/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin
 
Tropical Storm Gaston Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21 Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022

000
FONT13 KNHC 251434
PWSAT3
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM GASTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  21           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082022               
1500 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GASTON WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 39.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PAPIN                                                    
Tropical Storm Gaston Graphics Tropical Storm Gaston 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 25 Sep 2022 14:35:05 GMT

Tropical Storm Gaston 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 25 Sep 2022 15:23:05 GMT
Summary for Tropical Storm Ian (AT4/AL092022) ...IAN FORECAST TO BEGIN RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING TONIGHT... ...SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS EXPECTED IN WESTERN CUBA... As of 2:00 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 the center of Ian was located near 15.7, -80.0 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Tropical Storm Ian Public Advisory Number 10A Issued at 200 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022

000
WTNT34 KNHC 251753
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
200 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022
 
...IAN FORECAST TO BEGIN RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING TONIGHT...
...SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS EXPECTED IN WESTERN 
CUBA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 80.0W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 540 MI...865 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of the Cayman Islands has issued a Tropical Storm 
Watch for Little Cayman and Cayman Brac.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Cayman
* Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.  Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests in central Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida
peninsula should monitor the progress of Ian.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian was 
located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 80.0 West. Ian is moving 
toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the 
northwest is expected this evening, followed by a 
north-northwestward motion on Monday and a northward motion on 
Tuesday with a slightly slower forward speed. On the forecast track, 
the center of Ian is expected to pass well southwest of Jamaica this 
evening, and pass near or west of the Cayman Islands early Monday. 
Ian will then move near or over western Cuba Monday night and early 
Tuesday and emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Rapid strengthening is forecast to begin tonight. Ian is expected to 
become a hurricane by early Monday and reach major hurricane 
strength Monday night or early Tuesday before it reaches western 
Cuba.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Grand Cayman by
early Monday, with tropical storm conditions expected later tonight.
Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area in Cuba by
early Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions expected by late
Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical
storm warning area in Cuba Monday night and Tuesday. Tropical storm 
conditions are possible on Little Cayman and Cayman Brac by tonight 
or early Monday.
 
RAINFALL:  Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall:
 
Jamaica and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 6 inches, with local maxima up
to 8 inches.
 
Western Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with local maxima up to 16 inches.
 
Florida Keys into southern and central Florida Peninsula: 2 to 4
inches, with local maxima up to 6 inches beginning Monday through
Wednesday morning.
 
Heavy rainfall may affect north Florida, the Florida panhandle and
the southeast United States Thursday, Friday and Saturday.
 
These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of
higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba. Flash and urban
flooding are possible across the Florida Keys and the Florida
peninsula through mid week. Additional flooding and rises on
area streams and rivers across northern Florida and parts of the
southeast U.S. later this week cannot be ruled out, especially in
central Florida given already saturated conditions.
 
STORM SURGE:  Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 9
to 14 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of western Cuba
in areas of onshore winds in the hurricane warning area Monday night
and early Tuesday.
 
Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore
winds in the Cayman Islands Sunday night into Monday.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Ian are affecting Jamaica and the Cayman 
Islands. Swells will spread northwestward to the southwestern coast 
of Cuba and the coasts of Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan 
Peninsula of Mexico on Monday and Monday night. These swells are 
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. 
Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 
Tropical Storm Ian Forecast Advisory Number 10 Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022

000
WTNT24 KNHC 251455
TCMAT4
 
TROPICAL STORM IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092022
1500 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS UPGRADED THE HURRICANE WATCH TO A 
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF ISLA DE JUVENTUD... 
PINAR DEL RIO...AND ARTEMISA...AND UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH 
TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA... 
MAYABEQUE...AND MATANZAS.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND CAYMAN
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF ISLA DE JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL RIO...AND ARTEMISA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...MAYABEQUE...AND MATANZAS
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED 
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL- 
STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS 
DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY 
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS IN CENTRAL CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IAN.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N  79.8W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE   0SE   0SW  45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N  79.8W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N  79.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 16.5N  81.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.1N  82.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  40SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.1N  83.7W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 22.0N  84.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  90SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 23.9N  84.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 25.5N  84.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...170NE 140SE 110SW 150NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 28.0N  84.4W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 30.3N  83.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N  79.8W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 25/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER REINHART
 
 
Tropical Storm Ian Forecast Discussion Number 10 Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022

000
WTNT44 KNHC 251521 CCA
TCDAT4
 
Tropical Storm Ian Discussion Number  10...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022

Corrected timing of Ian becoming a hurricane in the intensity 
discussion below to tonight or early Monday. 
 
The satellite presentation of Ian is gradually improving this 
morning. The overall circulation appears better defined in visible 
satellite imagery, and fragmented bands of convection around the 
center are showing increased signs of curvature. The low-level 
center of Ian also appears better defined in the latest data 
collected by the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters. Although the 
vortex is still vertically tilted, tail Doppler radar data suggest 
the low- and mid-level centers are beginning to converge. An earlier 
center dropsonde indicated the minimum pressure dropped slightly to 
1001 mb, but the aircraft winds thus far have not reflected any 
strengthening. Therefore, initial intensity for this advisory is 
held at 45 kt.

The latest fixes suggest Ian is beginning to make its turn around 
the western side of the subtropical ridge, and the initial motion 
is west-northwestward at 290/12 kt. A gradual turn to the northwest 
is expected later today as the cyclone passes well southwest of 
Jamaica, followed by a north-northwestward motion that brings the 
center of Ian west of the Cayman Islands on Monday and near or over 
western Cuba by early Tuesday. There is relatively high confidence 
in this portion of the track forecast. However, once the cyclone 
emerges over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, the spread in the 
track guidance increases at days 3-5. The HWRF and GFS still lie on 
the western side of the guidance envelope and show Ian moving over 
the central or western Florida panhandle, while the ECMWF and UKMET 
models show a track farther east into west-central Florida. Overall, 
the NHC track forecast remains near the center of the guidance 
envelope and still lies very near the TVCA multi-model consensus. 
However, there is still significant uncertainty in the long-range 
track forecast of Ian, and future adjustments to this portion of the 
forecast will likely be required.
 
The atmospheric and oceanic conditions over the northwestern 
Caribbean Sea appear very conducive for significant strengthening. 
So once Ian becomes more organized, the high oceanic heat content 
and low vertical shear conditions appear likely to support rapid 
intensification. The Deterministic to Probabilistic Statistical 
Rapid Intensification Index (DTOPS) still shows a greater than 90 
percent chance of rapid strengthening during the next 2-3 days. The 
intensity guidance remains very aggressive with strengthening Ian, 
and the NHC forecast reflects this potential. Ian is expected to 
become a hurricane by tonight or early Monday, and is forecast to 
reach major hurricane strength before it reaches western Cuba. This 
forecast lies very near the latest SHIPS guidance and the IVCN aid. 
By day 4, a significant increase in southwesterly shear is forecast 
by the global models, and this is forecast to induce some weakening 
as the vertical structure of the hurricane is disrupted. Despite 
this, Ian is likely to have an expanding wind field and will be 
slowing down by that time, which will have the potential to produce 
significant wind and storm surge impacts across portions of the 
Florida west coast and the Florida panhandle. 
 
Key Messages:
 
1.  Ian is expected to produce heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and 
possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain, particularly over 
Jamaica and Cuba.  Flash and urban flooding is possible across the 
Florida Keys and Florida peninsula through mid week. Additional 
flooding on rivers across northern Florida and parts of the 
southeast U.S. cannot be ruled out later this week. 
 
2.  Life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds are 
expected in portions of western Cuba beginning late Monday, where 
a hurricane warning is now in effect. Efforts to protect life and 
property should be rushed to completion. 
 
3.  Ian is expected to be a major hurricane in the eastern Gulf of 
Mexico during the middle of the week, but uncertainty in the 
long-term track and intensity forecasts is higher than usual.  
Regardless of Ian’s exact track and intensity, there is a risk of 
dangerous storm surge, hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall 
along the west coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle by the 
middle of the week, and residents in Florida should ensure they 
have their hurricane plan in place, follow any advice given by 
local officials, and closely monitor updates to the forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/1500Z 15.2N  79.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  26/0000Z 16.5N  81.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  26/1200Z 18.1N  82.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  27/0000Z 20.1N  83.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  27/1200Z 22.0N  84.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 60H  28/0000Z 23.9N  84.8W  115 KT 130 MPH
 72H  28/1200Z 25.5N  84.8W  115 KT 130 MPH
 96H  29/1200Z 28.0N  84.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  30/1200Z 30.3N  83.7W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 
Tropical Storm Ian Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10 Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022

000
FONT14 KNHC 251456
PWSAT4
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM IAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  10              
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092022               
1500 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 
15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                                          
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
GREENSBORO NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
FAYETTEVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
CHARLOTTE NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
SURF CITY NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
 
FLORENCE SC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)
 
COLUMBIA SC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)
 
LITTLE RIVER   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)
 
GEORGETOWN SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  11(15)
CHARLESTON SC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
CHARLESTON SC  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
BEAUFORT MCAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  16(22)
BEAUFORT MCAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
BEAUFORT MCAS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
ATLANTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  12(15)
 
AUGUSTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  14(18)
AUGUSTA GA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  17(24)
SAVANNAH GA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
SAVANNAH GA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
KINGS BAY GA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  18(20)  19(39)
KINGS BAY GA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   9(13)
KINGS BAY GA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
WAYCROSS GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  16(17)  22(39)
WAYCROSS GA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   8(12)
WAYCROSS GA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
MAYPORT NS FL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  19(22)  18(40)
MAYPORT NS FL  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   8(12)
MAYPORT NS FL  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
JACKSONVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  17(19)  19(38)
JACKSONVILLE   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   8(12)
JACKSONVILLE   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
GAINESVILLE FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  25(30)  20(50)
GAINESVILLE FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)  10(19)
GAINESVILLE FL 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  16(20)  14(34)
DAYTONA BEACH  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   5(10)
DAYTONA BEACH  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
THE VILLAGES   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  23(31)  17(48)
THE VILLAGES   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   6(16)
THE VILLAGES   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)
 
ORLANDO FL     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  19(25)  12(37)
ORLANDO FL     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   4(11)
ORLANDO FL     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  17(26)  10(36)
COCOA BEACH FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)
COCOA BEACH FL 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
PATRICK AFB    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  18(27)   9(36)
PATRICK AFB    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)
PATRICK AFB    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  14(23)   7(30)
FT PIERCE FL   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
FT PIERCE FL   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)  11(22)   4(26)
W PALM BEACH   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
FT LAUDERDALE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)   9(22)   3(25)
FT LAUDERDALE  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
FT LAUDERDALE  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   7(15)   3(18)
MIAMI FL       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
HOMESTEAD ARB  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   6(15)   3(18)
HOMESTEAD ARB  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
HOMESTEAD ARB  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)  20(28)   6(34)   2(36)
MARATHON FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)
MARATHON FL    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  10(13)  27(40)   5(45)   2(47)
KEY WEST FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   2(12)   X(12)
KEY WEST FL    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
NAPLES FL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  34(38)  11(49)   4(53)
NAPLES FL      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   7(16)   2(18)
NAPLES FL      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  19(21)  13(34)   5(39)
FT MYERS FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   6(11)   2(13)
FT MYERS FL    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)
 
VENICE FL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  39(41)  21(62)   8(70)
VENICE FL      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)  15(28)   6(34)
VENICE FL      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   9(14)   3(17)
 
TAMPA FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  30(30)  29(59)  11(70)
TAMPA FL       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  17(24)   8(32)
TAMPA FL       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  10(13)   4(17)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  19(19)  34(53)  16(69)
CEDAR KEY FL   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  20(24)  13(37)
CEDAR KEY FL   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   7(18)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  25(29)  24(53)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)  13(25)
TALLAHASSEE FL 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   7(13)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  27(32)  24(56)
ST MARKS FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)  14(28)
ST MARKS FL    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   7(14)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)  34(48)  17(65)
APALACHICOLA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  19(23)  14(37)
APALACHICOLA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)   9(22)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  22(22)  36(58)  15(73)
GFMX 290N 850W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  25(31)  14(45)
GFMX 290N 850W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  16(19)   8(27)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)  30(40)  17(57)
PANAMA CITY FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  14(16)  11(27)
PANAMA CITY FL 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   7(15)
 
DESTIN EXEC AP 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  16(19)  14(33)
DESTIN EXEC AP 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   7(13)
DESTIN EXEC AP 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
 
COLUMBUS GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)  15(23)
COLUMBUS GA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
COLUMBUS GA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
BIRMINGHAM AL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)
 
MONTGOMERY AL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  10(17)
MONTGOMERY AL  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
MONTGOMERY AL  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
WHITING FLD FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)  12(26)
WHITING FLD FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   5( 9)
WHITING FLD FL 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  12(14)  11(25)
PENSACOLA FL   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)
PENSACOLA FL   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)  24(36)  10(46)
GFMX 290N 870W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)   7(20)
GFMX 290N 870W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   4(10)
 
MOBILE AL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   8(15)
MOBILE AL      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
MOBILE AL      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
GULFPORT MS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   6(11)
 
STENNIS MS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)
 
BURAS LA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   4( 9)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  12(17)   5(22)
GFMX 280N 890W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)
GFMX 280N 890W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)
 
JACKSON MS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 
HOUMA LA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)
 
BATON ROUGE LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
MORGAN CITY LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
MERIDA MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   7(12)   4(16)   1(17)   X(17)
COZUMEL MX     50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
BELIZE CITY    34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
GUANAJA        34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   2(11)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   1( 1)  24(25)  52(77)   8(85)   X(85)   X(85)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50  X   X( X)   6( 6)  44(50)  12(62)   1(63)   X(63)
CP SAN ANTONIO 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)  29(31)  11(42)   1(43)   X(43)
 
HAVANA         34  X   1( 1)   9(10)  34(44)  15(59)   1(60)   1(61)
HAVANA         50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   8(17)   1(18)   X(18)
HAVANA         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  X   2( 2)  42(44)  24(68)   4(72)   X(72)   X(72)
ISLE OF PINES  50  X   X( X)  10(10)  16(26)   2(28)   X(28)   1(29)
ISLE OF PINES  64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)   2(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   5(12)   1(13)   X(13)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  1  26(27)  15(42)   2(44)   1(45)   X(45)   X(45)
GRAND CAYMAN   50  X   4( 4)   5( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
GRAND CAYMAN   64  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER REINHART                                                 
Tropical Storm Ian Graphics Tropical Storm Ian 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 25 Sep 2022 17:53:23 GMT

Tropical Storm Ian 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 25 Sep 2022 15:29:38 GMT

Eastern Pacific

Title Description
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 251746
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Sep 25 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Newton, located several hundred miles west-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Papin
Summary for Tropical Depression Newton (EP5/EP152022) ...NEWTON FORECAST TO WEAKEN... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sun Sep 25 the center of Newton was located near 19.0, -116.4 with movement WSW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Tropical Depression Newton Public Advisory Number 16 Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Sep 25 2022

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 251428
TCPEP5
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Newton Advisory Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152022
800 AM PDT Sun Sep 25 2022
 
...NEWTON FORECAST TO WEAKEN...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 116.4W
ABOUT 500 MI...800 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Newton 
was located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 116.4 West. The 
depression is moving toward the west-southwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). 
A motion toward the southwest is anticipated over the next few 
days. 
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Newton should degenerate into a remnant low tonight or early 
Monday, and the wind speed is forecast to gradually decrease 
through midweek.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Blake
 
Tropical Depression Newton Forecast Advisory Number 16 Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022

000
WTPZ25 KNHC 251428
TCMEP5
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEWTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152022
1500 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 116.4W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 116.4W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 116.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.3N 117.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 17.1N 118.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 15.8N 120.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 14.5N 121.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 13.5N 123.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 116.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
 
Tropical Depression Newton Forecast Discussion Number 16 Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Sep 25 2022

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 251429
TCDEP5
 
Tropical Depression Newton Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152022
800 AM PDT Sun Sep 25 2022

Newton barely qualifies as a tropical depression this morning, with 
a small area of not-exactly-organized deep convection, which has 
been weakening during the past few hours.  The initial wind speed 
is held at 30 kt, perhaps generously.  The system should gradually 
weaken due to persistent southerly shear helping to entrain drier 
air into the circulation.  This environment should eliminate any 
significant convection by this evening, and remnant low status is 
now indicated in 12 hours.  

The depression is turning leftward, with the motion now estimated 
at 240/8 kt.  Newton should move southwestward during the next few 
days due to the orientation of the low-level ridge, and the model 
guidance is in good agreement on this scenario.  No significant 
changes were made to the previous NHC forecast for track or 
intensity.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/1500Z 19.0N 116.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  26/0000Z 18.3N 117.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  26/1200Z 17.1N 118.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  27/0000Z 15.8N 120.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  27/1200Z 14.5N 121.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  28/0000Z 13.5N 123.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  28/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Blake
 
Tropical Depression Newton Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16 Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022

000
FOPZ15 KNHC 251428
PWSEP5
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEWTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  16      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152022               
1500 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEWTON WAS LOCATED NEAR  
LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 120W       34  X   X( X)   7( 7)   5(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    
Tropical Depression Newton Graphics Tropical Depression Newton 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 25 Sep 2022 14:29:50 GMT

Tropical Depression Newton 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 25 Sep 2022 15:35:39 GMT

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