Atlantic
| Title | Description |
|---|---|
| Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook |
000 ABNT20 KNHC 151717 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 200 PM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Bill, located a few hundred miles south-southeast of Halifax, Canada. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue over the Bay of Campeche and southern Mexico in association with a broad low pressure area. This system is expected to move little during the next day or two, and any development should be slow to occur during that time period due to its close proximity to land. However, the disturbance should begin to move northward by Thursday, and a tropical depression is likely to form late in the week when the low moves across the central and northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall will continue over portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the next several days. Heavy rains could also begin to impact portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Friday. Please consult products from your local meteorological service for more information. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. Shower activity is limited in association with a tropical wave located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Development, if any, should be slow to occur during the next couple of days while the wave moves westward. Thereafter, a combination of dry air aloft and strong upper-level winds should end the chances of formation when the wave reaches the central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Roth |
| Summary for Tropical Storm Bill (AT2/AL022021) | ...BILL ALMOST AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE... As of 5:00 PM AST Tue Jun 15 the center of Bill was located near 41.6, -59.6 with movement NE at 36 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph. |
| Tropical Storm Bill Public Advisory Number 6 | Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Jun 15 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 152033 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Bill Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022021 500 PM AST Tue Jun 15 2021 ...BILL ALMOST AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...41.6N 59.6W ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA ABOUT 540 MI...865 KM E OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 36 MPH...57 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bill was located near latitude 41.6 North, longitude 59.6 West. Bill is moving toward the northeast near 36 mph (57 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue until the cyclone dissipates on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is expected, and Bill is forecast to become a post-tropical low by this evening. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
| Tropical Storm Bill Forecast Advisory Number 6 | Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUN 15 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 152032 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BILL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022021 2100 UTC TUE JUN 15 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.6N 59.6W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 31 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 0NE 80SE 40SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 180SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.6N 59.6W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.9N 60.8W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 44.7N 55.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 80SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.6N 59.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI |
| Tropical Storm Bill Forecast Discussion Number 6 | Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Jun 15 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 152035 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Bill Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022021 500 PM AST Tue Jun 15 2021 Bill is well on its way to becoming an extratropical cyclone. The convective pattern has become quite asymmetric with the center exposed to the southwest of the weakening thunderstorms. The center itself has become stretched, and in fact, surrounding observations suggest that the surface center may no longer be closed. In addition, a warm front appears to be forming on the storm's southeast side. Based on these trends, it seems very likely that Bill won't be around for long as a tropical storm. The initial intensity is held at 50 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data, but that could be a little generous. The initial motion remains a very fast 055/31 kt. A continued fast east-northeast to northeast motion in the mid-latitude jet stream is expected until the cyclone dissipates within the next 12-24 hours near Atlantic Canada. Some weakening seems likely prior to dissipation due to the cyclone moving over much colder SSTs while remaining in a strong wind shear environment. Due to the system's fast forward speed, the strong winds will remain confined to the south and east sides of the cyclone. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 41.6N 59.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 44.7N 55.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
| Tropical Storm Bill Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6 | Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUN 15 2021
000
FONT12 KNHC 152033
PWSAT2
TROPICAL STORM BILL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022021
2100 UTC TUE JUN 15 2021
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
41.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
|
| Tropical Storm Bill Graphics |
 5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 15 Jun 2021 20:36:54 GMT  Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 15 Jun 2021 21:22:32 GMT |
Eastern Pacific
| Title | Description |
|---|---|
| Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook |
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 151737 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Tue Jun 15 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Carlos, located over 1700 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles south of southern Mexico and Guatemala are associated with a westward-moving tropical wave and a broad area of low pressure. An area of low pressure is expected to form along this wave later this week. Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by this weekend while it moves slowly northwestward, roughly parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. $$ Forecaster Latto |
| Summary for Tropical Depression Carlos (EP3/EP032021) | ...CARLOS BARELY HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE... As of 2:00 PM PDT Tue Jun 15 the center of Carlos was located near 9.8, -133.5 with movement WSW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph. |
| Tropical Depression Carlos Public Advisory Number 13 | Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Jun 15 2021 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 152039 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Carlos Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 200 PM PDT Tue Jun 15 2021 ...CARLOS BARELY HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.8N 133.5W ABOUT 1800 MI...2900 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Carlos was located near latitude 9.8 North, longitude 133.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west-southwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A continued westward motion along with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Carlos is expected to degenerate into a remnant low tonight or tomorrow and dissipate in a few days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto |
| Tropical Depression Carlos Forecast Advisory Number 13 | Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUN 15 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 152038 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032021 2100 UTC TUE JUN 15 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 133.5W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 133.5W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 133.1W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 9.6N 134.6W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 9.4N 135.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 9.5N 137.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 9.7N 138.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 10.0N 139.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.8N 133.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO |
| Tropical Depression Carlos Forecast Discussion Number 13 | Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Jun 15 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 152039 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Carlos Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 200 PM PDT Tue Jun 15 2021 Dry, stable air and strong southwesterly shear continue to take their toll on Carlos. The only deep convection associated with the depression consists of a very small cluster just south of the center, and another about 90 n mi northwest of the center. This meager amount of shower activity is not sufficient to be considered organized deep convection. Therefore if no significant convection develops soon, then Carlos will be declared a remnant low. Despite the lack of convection, a pair recent ASCAT overpasses showed several wind vectors of 27-30 kt, so the initial intensity remains 30 kt for this advisory. The environment surrounding the depression is not forecast to improve, so the vortex should gradually spin down, with dissipation expected within a few days. Carlos is moving just south of due west at 8 kt. This general motion is expected to continue for the remainder of the cyclone's existence, except for perhaps a slight decrease in forward speed and turn to the right, as the system is steered by a low- to mid-level ridge to its north. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one and lies near the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 9.8N 133.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 9.6N 134.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 9.4N 135.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 17/0600Z 9.5N 137.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/1800Z 9.7N 138.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/0600Z 10.0N 139.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto |
| Tropical Depression Carlos Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13 | Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUN 15 2021
000
FOPZ13 KNHC 152039
PWSEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032021
2100 UTC TUE JUN 15 2021
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 9.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 133.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
10N 135W 34 5 6(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
10N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER LATTO
|
| Tropical Depression Carlos Graphics |
 5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 15 Jun 2021 20:40:50 GMT  Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 15 Jun 2021 21:28:24 GMT |
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